How to Assess Uncertainty and Mitigate Bias for Better Decisions

Uncertainty is an inherent part of decision-making, but how we assess and interpret uncertainty can significantly impact the direction of our projects and their success. Unfortunately, cognitive biases often distort these assessments, leading to overconfidence, misjudgment, and flawed predictions. Debiasing teams can lead to more thoughtful discussion around the impact of uncertainty on strategic alternatives and drive insight often masked by innate bias. This webinar will explore why debiasing and calibration is critical for improving the accuracy and reliability of uncertainty assessments.

We’ll discuss common biases—such as anchoring, confirmation bias, and overconfidence—and practical strategies to recognize and mitigate them. By understanding these pitfalls, you can make better-informed decisions and enhance the quality of your forecasts.

To translate theory to practice, we’ll also introduce two new resources: the Calibration Quiz, which, over time, improves the quality of assessments, and the Uncertainty Assessment, designed to debias teams and collaboratively assess key uncertainties. These tools will give you a repeatable framework for addressing biases and improving calibration to support decision-making under uncertainty.

Key Questions this Webinar will Address:

• Why is uncertainty assessment important to decision-making?

• What are common biases inherent to uncertainty assessment, and what common tools can we use to debias teams?

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing your webinar credentials.

Registration Link: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/rt/5644686439800751964